Survivability of Territorial Autonomy: A Study of Contributory Factors that Explain the Preservation and Secession of Autonomous Territories

Scholars and policymakers often debate whether the creation of territorial autonomy arrangements can appease grievances that a minority group within a parent state might experience or whether such solutions could lead to its eventual secession and acquisition of its own sovereign state. The aim of this dissertation is to identify factors related to ethnicity and identity along with prosperity and viability that have contributed most to autonomy failure by secession for some autonomous territories. A corresponding theoretical model on secessionism and secession based on perspectives on intergroup alienation and grievances is developed. 

A mixed-methods approach is applied in the study. First, quantitative analysis with Cox regression analysis is performed using time-series data compiled by the author for 11 independent variables and for 53 autonomous territories that have experienced 68 autonomy periods between the years 1901 and 2020. Then, qualitative case study analysis using event history analysis with process tracing is performed on the key independent variables according to the quantitative analysis. The analysis is conducted on one autonomous territory that was dissolved by secession from its parent state, and on one that endured as such until the year 2020. Research data consists of demographic, geographical, macro and socioeconomic indicators, statements by officials in media and parliamentary sittings, election manifestos and results, opinion polls as well as previous research.

The quantitative analysis indicates that relative economic deprivation in terms of GDP per capita and ethnic distinctiveness in terms of both language and religion contribute to autonomy failure by secession. The qualitative analyses appear to confirm the results regarding relative economic performance from a broader viewpoint. The first case study concerning Malta indicates that the presence of relative economic deprivation contributed to its secession in 1964. The second case study regarding the Cayman Islands indicates that its relative economic prosperity has discouraged secession. However, the qualitative analyses do not seem to confirm the results from the quantitative analysis regarding linguistic and religious distinctiveness. The first case study does not indicate that such distinctiveness in Malta contributed to its secession from its parent state, nor does the second case study indicate that absence of such distinctiveness in the Cayman Islands can explain the absence of secession for the territory.

Thus, the results of this study suggest that relative overall economic deprivation rather than prosperity contributes significantly to the occurrence of autonomy failure by secession, whereas combined linguistic and religious distinctiveness might contribute but to a lesser extent.